It’s my pleasure to speak this morning on the notice of motion regarding budgetary policy for our government. It is my pleasure to do that. And I’m very pleased to be part of the government now—but budgetary policy going back to 2018, and now to 2024, in the budget released on Tuesday by the minister.

I’ll be going through a number of different areas in this budget because I think there are so many important elements to it, whether it’s the infrastructure plan—a record investment, over a 10-year period, of $190 billion; the economic development initiatives that we’ve been undertaking in so many areas, as a government; and the fiscal environment that we find ourselves in, the economic environment, which has been more challenging than was the case last year. It’s certainly a pleasure to work with the Minister of Finance and the Ministry of Finance budget team on this. The minister has been terrific. It has been a pleasure being his PA for the last while. And I look forward to ongoing work with the government.

Touching on a couple of those themes, and starting with the fiscal environment—over the past six years, as our economy and population have grown, our government has been delivering on our plan to build Ontario. But like the rest of the world, Ontario continues to face economic uncertainty due to high interest rates and global instability. These challenges are putting pressure on Ontario families as well as public finances. High inflation, high Bank of Canada interest rates and the high cost of the federal carbon tax have pushed costs up. Households are struggling.

Faced with the challenges, our government might have chosen to raise taxes, reduce investments and services, or download costs on municipalities. Our government is taking a different approach. We are continuing to invest in Ontario’s people and communities. We are doing what’s needed to get it done.

Looking more closely at the fiscal situation—like the rest of the world, Ontario continues to face these economic challenges that I mentioned. The outcomes of persistently high interest rates and inflation continue to be unclear. However, Ontario’s economy has demonstrated continued resiliency in light of ongoing economic pressure. By taking a responsible approach to fiscal management while creating stronger communities for future generations, the government is continuing to make progress on its plan to build Ontario together.

Ontario’s economy performed stronger than expected in 2023, despite continued economic headwinds prompted by elevated consumer price inflation and interest rates. Nearly all private sector forecasters expect continued, but slower, growth in 2024 compared to the projection in the 2023 budget.

Ontario also experienced above-average employment growth in 2023, adding 183,000 net new jobs, a 2.4% increase. Ontario’s unemployment rate rose modestly to 5.7% in 2023 but remained low compared to historic averages.

The government plan retains the path to balance despite these fiscal deterioration pressures relative to the 2023 budget and the outlook in the fall 2023 economic outlook and fiscal review. While slower projected growth in 2024 and other factors beyond the province’s control are key drivers of the deterioration, the government is continuing to invest in key public services and not raising taxes or fees to increase revenues, at a time when it’s important to keep costs down for people and for businesses.

In 2023-24, Ontario is projecting a deficit of $3.0 billion, this year. Over the medium term, the deficit will increase to $9.8 billion in 2024-25 and $4.6 billion in 2025-26, before a surplus of half a billion dollars in 2026-27.

The government will continue to support people and businesses in Ontario and make prudent and targeted investments, as I noted.

Looking at some of the economic assumptions: GDP grew by 1.2% in 2023—stronger than projected in the last year’s budget. Nominal GDP growth is expected at 4.1%, higher than the 2.8% projected in the last year’s budget. The outlook has been revised compared to the projections in the 2023 budget. Key changes since then include stronger estimated real and nominal GDP growth in 2023, but slower real and nominal GDP growth in 2024 and 2026, with most of the deterioration this year.

I say all these things because at the end of the day, budgets are about choices. As I noted and as the minister noted in his remarks, faced with these challenges that are evident all over the world, the government could have reduced spending to keep its budget in check, or increased taxes, and we did not do those things. In fact, we kept our spending profile very, very strong and infrastructure spending, which I’ll talk about in a short time, very, very strong. So those are the choices that we have made. It’s the right, balanced choice. And we will get to balance in the years ahead, so we’re looking forward to that.

Some of the measures that are used to determine what makes a prudent plan for governments are measures like, “How big is the debt-to-GDP ratio?” The goal is to treat it below 40%. Well, we’re doing that. Right through this piece, it never goes above 40%—38.4% this year, 2023-24; 38.0% in 2023-24 in the final number; and in 2024-25, 39.2%, so below that 40% threshold. That’s very important.

The other thing that’s important is, the government has done a very good job in its borrowing program. Even though interest rates have gone up, they’ve done more long-term borrowing, and so interest costs are actually down compared to what was expected in the last year’s budget. We’re going to pay $12.8 billion in interest costs in 2023-24; $13.9 billion in 2024-25; and $14.7 billion in 2025-26. Those are down from the forecasts of $14.1 billion, $14.4 billion and $15.1 billion. So I give the government full credit for having the forecast and the propensity to extend its borrowing program so that there is less volatility in the borrowing program—very, very prudent and very, very well done.

The overall fiscal plan: I mentioned the deficit numbers. The other thing that I find is very strong about this budget and the government’s approach is that we’re showing the benefits of the economic development that’s happening in Ontario. Overall revenues, which were $192 billion in 2022-23, are rising to over $200 billion this year—$205 billion—without any new taxes. Government revenue will go up, and there’s always a tension there—“Hey, you’re taking too much from my pocket”—but it’s so important. That shows the underlying strength of the Ontario economy. That’s what it’s based on. It’s the underlying economic strength that’s generating these revenues—whether it’s for corporations, personal taxes or other elements that are behind it—not tax increases. That’s very, very important.

At the same time, our program spending has continued its very substantial and solid growth. Let’s look at some of the sectors. Health care: $75.1 billion in 2022-23; up to $85 billion this year, 2024-25—a $10-billion increase in health care funding. That is so fundamental to what we’re doing. I’ll talk about the infrastructure shortly and all the other measures. But that’s a great measure of the priorities that our government is placing on health care.

Education: $33.6 billion to $37.6 billion in that same period—a substantial increase in spending. Post-secondary, children, community and social services—on and on and on. This government is treating these areas—continues to treat them—as a key priority and is able to accommodate those very substantial spending increases in our economic plan. It ultimately leads to a balanced budget in the out years.

These are the choices that we have made—maintain our support for these key programs; maintain the priorities for the people of Ontario; have a balanced and prudent approach in, frankly, a difficult economic environment. That’s the basis on which this budget has been done, and I’m very pleased with the approach that has been taken.

I want to now talk about infrastructure and our government’s plan to build. This is an area where, again, I am very, very encouraged by the approach we’ve taken. Normally, governments will make decisions as far as they can see towards the next election—“Hey, let’s just do what we need to do to get re-elected.” Well, that’s not the approach we’ve taken. We were going a full decade out, 10 years out, with $190 billion of investment in infrastructure over the next 10 years—a huge, huge number. More importantly, this year, it’s $26.2 billion in the next 12 months; that’s over $2 billion per month in infrastructure spending in the province of Ontario—massive numbers. These are also investments that aren’t going to be there just for tomorrow, next year and when they’re built. These are legacy, generational investments that are needed. And whether it’s in health care or transportation or transit, they’re so, so important to the economy and to our province.

Let’s look first at transit: over the next 10 years, $67.5 billion in transit—just massive, massive numbers.

With GO Transit, we’re transforming the GO rail network to improve access and convenience across the greater Golden Horseshoe by increasing two-way service; making investments to extend GO Transit rail service to Bowmanville; extending the Hazel McCallion light rail transit line; expanding service to the Milton GO line by adding train trips there; increasing frequency between Union and Niagara; more express service between Hamilton, Burlington, Toronto—on and on and on. These are fundamental and such important investments in our transit community.

Let’s look at subways. One of the great things that this government did early in its mandate was upload construction of subways. I was on the board of—

Colleagues, I want to update you this morning on the ongoing, exciting developments in the world of medical isotopes. As members know, for over half a century, Canada has been a world leader in the development, production and use of life-saving medical isotopes in the diagnosis and treatment of cancer, while also tackling some of the greatest health science challenges, including equipment and PPE sterilization, fighting the Zika virus, and pharmaceutical advancements.

In 2023, the Canadian Nuclear Isotope Council launched Isotopes for Hope: Canadian Leadership Needed Now More Than Ever, with the goal of doubling Canadian production of isotopes by 2030. “The world needs more Canada” is core to the CNIC’s message, as they have unique capabilities, people and infrastructure for our Canadian isotope ecosystem. They recently launched the first Isotopes for Hope podcast series to share perspectives from Canadians who are inspiring leaders, turning this vision into a reality and delivering important progress to people around the world who are counting on Canada as a global isotope superpower.

Last week, this important message was brought directly to Queen’s Park at an excellent medical isotopes reception. The members from Kitchener South–Hespeler and Mississauga Centre have been very active in this exciting work and were there to share their message.

This ongoing work is absolutely excellent for Ontario, and we look forward to ongoing leadership and collaboration right here in Ontario to promote medical isotopes.

It’s my great pleasure to recognize a long-term dear friend of mine. We went to high school together in Port Hope. Yes, it was the last millennium. But it’s great to have Harry Worsley with us today. He’s from Uxbridge, a commercial tree farmer. It’s great to see you, Harry. Thanks for coming. Welcome.

It’s a great pleasure to continue discussion of this budget motion and the government’s budget policies. And I was talking about the infrastructure investment that government is making over 10 years and I just want to emphasize how important it is having that long-term horizon—it’s not next year; it’s not up to the next election—it’s a 10-year program where the government is proposing to spend $190 billion, which is a record number in so many different sectors.

I was talking about transit and I mentioned the GO Transit investments, which are very substantial both in terms of infrastructure and service levels. I want to talk now about subways. The overall transit window over 10 years is $67.5 billion—a record. And subways are such an important part of the fabric of the city, particularly here in the GTA and particularly here in Toronto directly. There has always been a reluctance to invest in subways and get them done. That’s why, really, the city of Toronto did nothing for 30 and 40 years. That’s why so much of our transit system is above ground, with buses and streetcars, versus other big cities where they never stopped digging. Happily, our government uploaded the subway projects because I sat on the board of the TTC for three years and I saw first-hand how time after time after time—for example, the Scarborough subway was rejected. There’s always a reason not to put shovels in the ground because it’s not easy for neighbourhoods. We’ve seen what’s happening with the Eglinton Crosstown; it’s been very, very challenging.

Well, I’ll tell you what, folks: When that line opens, people then will say, “Okay, it was painful, but this is the benefit we get.” The same thing for Scarborough and what’s happening now with the three-stop subway there. I believe it’s called Diggy Scardust—if I’m not mistaken—digging actively. But whether it’s there or the Ontario Line, the north York expansion, the three-stop Scarborough subway, these are all being built.

The other thing I’d say is that there’s been an adjustment to the way these projects are done because what’s called the public-private partnership model, the P3 model, is seen to be not working as well in transit as it could. And so, to their great credit, Metrolinx has adjusted that model and that’s why all these projects are running ahead of time and no doubt they will be delivered on time and on budget. So I’m very much looking forward to that huge investment in transit in our community.

Because, by the way, let’s not forget: The members opposite talk frequently about the environment. You know what? Transit is a phenomenal investment for the environment. It gets people out of cars, off the roads, into efficient transit and it’s great for doing that, so that’s a great policy that our government is following.

I want to now just mention health care on the infrastructure side: Over 10 years, $48.5 billion of health care facilities—phenomenal number, and it’s so important. I won’t talk about the state of things when we came into government, but I’ll tell you what we’re doing: We’re fixing it, not just for tomorrow, but for the generations to come. And it’s $50 billion over 10 years, including close to $36 billion in hospital capital grants to support more than 50 hospital projects all around the province that would add approximately 3,000 new beds over 10 years. Just the magnitude of those numbers is just fantastic. Again, it’s not for tomorrow; that’s for the next generation, including:

—the Weeneebayko Area Health Authority of Moosonee, way up north. Comments were made about northern health care. We’re investing there;

—a new 17-storey tower at Queen Street and Victoria Street for the University Health Network St. Michael’s Hospital, to accommodate expanded emergency department and ambulatory services;

—redevelopment of the Ottawa Hospital Civic Campus to become one of the most advanced trauma centres in eastern Ontario;

—support for the Windsor-Essex regional hospital, so important in that part of the province; and

—projects all over: Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre, as well, partners with the University Health Network. So it goes on and on, which is such great news for these communities.

Long-term care, as well: We’ve spent $6.4 billion since 2019. The goal is to build 58,000 new and upgraded long-term beds in the province by 2028, such an important investment. You know, when I went to high school—I’ll be there in one of those beds in the not-too-distant future, perhaps. Anyway, hopefully, it will ease the way. But it’s so important for our seniors who built this great province and country of ours to have the kind of facilities that they need and deserve.

I will say here again, talking about the legacy of previous governments, that over 15 years, the previous government built 611 beds, I believe the number was, in Ontario. In my own riding of Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound—the great previous member, Bill Walker—in four years, there were about 950 beds, versus 611 in the whole province over 15 years. That just shows you the perspective that they had versus what we’re having, and we’re going to keep going and building, building and building until there’s enough beds for our folks.

Schools, as well: $23 billion, including $16 billion in capital grants over the next 10 years to build more schools all over the province—French and English public schools in Blind River; a new English school in Ottawa; St. Anne’s Catholic School in St. Thomas; and in Vaughan, a French Catholic school. In my own community in the great, thriving metropolis of Markdale, the Beavercrest school is being built. These institutions matter so much to our local communities, and that’s why our government is going to keep building. So it’s not just for tomorrow; it’s for our kids and their kids in the future.

All that to say, Madam Speaker, it’s just a great pleasure to stand up and support this motion and all the things that we are doing. Whether it’s in infrastructure, in program spending, in making life more affordable, we are there for Ontarians, and we’re going to keep going and make sure we get it done.

As of December 2023, Ontario had approximately 513,000 spaces in licensed child care centres for children zero to 12 years old, and as of December, there were more than 309,000 spaces for children zero to five enrolled in CWELCC, representing 92% of all spaces in this child care group. We’ve got early childhood learning all over. We’ve signed the $13.2-billion program. We will keep investing in child care, work with the community and make sure that those spaces are available for our kids and their kids.

Thank you to the great member for his great question.

He’s touched on something that is so important to building housing: It’s the infrastructure that needs to be there at the beginning.

We heard loud and clear from your community and communities all over the province about needing housing-enabling infrastructure—water and waste water, essentially. There is new funding of $1.8 billion directed towards that area. This will enable municipalities to apply for this funding and get that infrastructure in place so the houses can be built.

But it’s not just that. There’s working with the Ontario infrastructure fund. There is other funding and opportunities that we’re doing. Re-profiling the Infrastructure Ontario lending program is being done as well. So there are more and more areas where municipalities can get that infrastructure built so that we can get the houses built that we need here in Ontario.

I point to the information in the budget on page 8—one of my favourite pages—talking about the spending programs. Post-secondary is going from $11.7 billion two years ago to $12.6 billion this year and into the twelves and thirteens in 2026-27, so big investments there. On the capital side: $5.7 billion over 10 years for colleges; $1.3 billion for universities.

We recognize the challenges facing post-secondary education, which is why the blue-ribbon panel was established. We’re taking action to stabilize the province’s colleges and universities by introducing a suite of measures, including an investment of nearly $1.3 billion in new funding to ensure the continued sustainability of the post-secondary education system. Whether it’s $903 million over three years for the new Postsecondary Education Sustainability Fund, including $203 million in funding the top-ups for institutions—and on and on and on.

So we recognize the importance of this sector. We will keep treating it as a priority, and look forward to working with the members opposite to support that goal.

The other element that is very important here is our Guaranteed Annual Income System program, the GAINS program, directed at seniors. That’s being enhanced and is a very, very fundamental part now of the tax system to assist those who need it most and were there for us. Starting in July, the benefit will increase to $87 a month for eligible seniors and $174 per month for couples. On and on and on, we’re going to keep investing in seniors.

I thank the member for the question.

When you invest in infrastructure, there are all sorts of projects all over that require attention—some of them big, some of them small. Look at this building here. It has been around since this province started, and we all feel that at times. Whether it’s the heating system or the cooling system, they all need work, and the media studio as well. I don’t know the intimate details of what was behind that project; perhaps it was to give the opposition more opportunities to be in front of the media over time. We’re always thinking of the opposition, Madam Speaker, to ensure that they have opportunities as well as we have.

Anyway, it’s an important part of our Queen’s Park infrastructure, and we’ll keep working on all that as we can.

I thank the member for her comments and certainly respect the member’s commercial background that she brings to this House. She has been an accountant and she has been on the board of the Bank of Canada, so good commercial experience.

I was also very interested in her comments about the size of the deficit. The implication is that she would like to see the deficit lower, and yet, also in her remarks, she was talking about increasing spending, whether it’s the TDSB or tax credits or health care. I don’t know. I started life as an accountant too, and those statements don’t quite add up together.

So I guess my question to the member would be: I’m encouraged by your comments on the deficit and wanting to get it down. To get that deficit lower, would you increase taxes to Ontarians, cut spending in health care or education, or what would be your formula of cuts and tax increases to get the deficit down?